Sv Morlautern 2–3 Wormatia Worms: Result & Stats

Sv Morlautern

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Wormatia Worms

8/12/2023

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 4Enkenbach Rasenplatz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Sv Morlautern33%

×Draw20%

Wormatia Worms46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sv MorlauternExpected goals in this matchWormatia Worms

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

2.23

Sv Morlautern

1.87

Wormatia Worms

2.23

Wormatia Worms creates 19% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 68 away

2.02

creates per match

1.99

2.48

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Sv Morlautern

2.02

Wormatia Worms

1.99

allows per match

Sv Morlautern

2.48

Wormatia Worms

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sv Morlautern+0.00on par

Wormatia Worms+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sv Morlautern ↓

Wormatia Worms →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Sv Morlautern or draw

54%

Sv Morlautern or Wormatia Worms

80%

Draw or Wormatia Worms

67%

Winning margin

Sv Morlautern wins by 2+

17%

Wormatia Worms wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Sv Morlautern 1+ goals

85%

Sv Morlautern 2+ goals

56%

Sv Morlautern 3+ goals

29%

Wormatia Worms 1+ goals

89%

Wormatia Worms 2+ goals

65%

Wormatia Worms 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Sv Morlautern (draw refunded)

42%

Wormatia Worms (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sv Morlautern at home — creates 2.02, concedes 2.48 · 46 matches

Wormatia Worms away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.72 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sv Morlautern attack 2.02 + Wormatia Worms defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.87

Wormatia Worms attack 1.99 + Sv Morlautern defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sv Morlautern scores more

33%

level

20%

Wormatia Worms scores more

46%

Wormatia Worms at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Wormatia Worms will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff