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SV Morlautern vs TuS RW Koblenz — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

SV Morlautern
SV Morlautern
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
TuS RW Koblenz
TuS RW Koblenz
11/9/2024Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 16Morlautern Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

SV Morlautern36%
×Draw21%
TuS RW Koblenz43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Morlautern
1.83
TuS RW Koblenz
2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 53 away

creates per match

SV Morlautern
2.02
TuS RW Koblenz
1.53

allows per match

SV Morlautern
2.48
TuS RW Koblenz
1.64

finishing

SV Morlautern+0.00on par
TuS RW Koblenz+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Morlautern ↓

TuS RW Koblenz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

SV Morlautern or draw
57%
SV Morlautern or TuS RW Koblenz
79%
Draw or TuS RW Koblenz
64%

Winning margin

SV Morlautern wins by 2+
19%
TuS RW Koblenz wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

SV Morlautern 1+ goals
84%
SV Morlautern 2+ goals
54%
SV Morlautern 3+ goals
28%
TuS RW Koblenz 1+ goals
86%
TuS RW Koblenz 2+ goals
59%
TuS RW Koblenz 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

SV Morlautern (draw refunded)
46%
TuS RW Koblenz (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Morlautern at home — creates 2.02, concedes 2.48 · 46 matches

TuS RW Koblenz away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Morlautern attack 2.02 + TuS RW Koblenz defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.83

TuS RW Koblenz attack 1.53 + SV Morlautern defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SV Morlautern scores more
36%
level
21%
TuS RW Koblenz scores more
43%

TuS RW Koblenz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "TuS RW Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: SV Morlautern 3–1 TuS RW Koblenz

SV Morlautern beat TuS RW Koblenz 3-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Morlautern Kunstrasenplatz in Kaiserslautern.