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Sv Morlautern vs FV Engers 07 — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Sv Morlautern
Sv Morlautern
FT
6 – 5
HT: 4 – 1
FV Engers 07
FV Engers 07
10/14/2023Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 17Morlautern Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Sv Morlautern33%
×Draw20%
FV Engers 0746%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sv Morlautern
1.86
FV Engers 07
2.22

FV Engers 07 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 78 away

creates per match

Sv Morlautern
2.02
FV Engers 07
1.96

allows per match

Sv Morlautern
2.48
FV Engers 07
1.71

finishing

Sv Morlautern+0.00on par
FV Engers 07+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sv Morlautern ↓

FV Engers 07 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Sv Morlautern or draw
54%
Sv Morlautern or FV Engers 07
80%
Draw or FV Engers 07
67%

Winning margin

Sv Morlautern wins by 2+
17%
FV Engers 07 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Sv Morlautern 1+ goals
84%
Sv Morlautern 2+ goals
55%
Sv Morlautern 3+ goals
28%
FV Engers 07 1+ goals
89%
FV Engers 07 2+ goals
65%
FV Engers 07 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Sv Morlautern (draw refunded)
42%
FV Engers 07 (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sv Morlautern at home — creates 2.02, concedes 2.48 · 46 matches

FV Engers 07 away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.71 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sv Morlautern attack 2.02 + FV Engers 07 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.86

FV Engers 07 attack 1.96 + Sv Morlautern defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sv Morlautern scores more
33%
level
20%
FV Engers 07 scores more
46%

FV Engers 07 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FV Engers 07 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sv Morlautern vs FV Engers 07

Sv Morlautern beat FV Engers 07 6-5 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Morlautern Kunstrasenplatz in Kaiserslautern.