Sv Morlautern 4–2 Diefflen: Result & Stats

Sv Morlautern

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Diefflen

9/9/2023

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 10Stadion am Kieferberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Sv Morlautern41%

×Draw20%

Diefflen39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sv MorlauternExpected goals in this matchDiefflen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

2.13

Sv Morlautern

2.18

Diefflen

2.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 79 away

2.02

creates per match

1.77

2.48

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Sv Morlautern

2.02

Diefflen

1.77

allows per match

Sv Morlautern

2.48

Diefflen

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sv Morlautern+0.00on par

Diefflen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sv Morlautern ↓

Diefflen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Sv Morlautern or draw

61%

Sv Morlautern or Diefflen

80%

Draw or Diefflen

59%

Winning margin

Sv Morlautern wins by 2+

23%

Diefflen wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Sv Morlautern 1+ goals

89%

Sv Morlautern 2+ goals

64%

Sv Morlautern 3+ goals

37%

Diefflen 1+ goals

88%

Diefflen 2+ goals

63%

Diefflen 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Sv Morlautern (draw refunded)

51%

Diefflen (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sv Morlautern at home — creates 2.02, concedes 2.48 · 46 matches

Diefflen away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.34 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sv Morlautern attack 2.02 + Diefflen defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.18

Diefflen attack 1.77 + Sv Morlautern defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sv Morlautern scores more

41%

level

20%

Diefflen scores more

39%

Sv Morlautern at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sv Morlautern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff