SV Morlautern 0–4 Arminia Ludwigshafen

SV Morlautern

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Arminia Ludwigshafen

3/8/2025

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 21Morlautern Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

SV Morlautern38%

×Draw20%

Arminia Ludwigshafen41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SV MorlauternExpected goals in this matchArminia Ludwigshafen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

2.17

SV Morlautern

2.09

Arminia Ludwigshafen

2.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 79 away

2.02

creates per match

1.87

2.48

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

SV Morlautern

2.02

Arminia Ludwigshafen

1.87

allows per match

SV Morlautern

2.48

Arminia Ludwigshafen

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SV Morlautern+0.00on par

Arminia Ludwigshafen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Morlautern ↓

Arminia Ludwigshafen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

SV Morlautern or draw

59%

SV Morlautern or Arminia Ludwigshafen

80%

Draw or Arminia Ludwigshafen

62%

Winning margin

SV Morlautern wins by 2+

21%

Arminia Ludwigshafen wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

SV Morlautern 1+ goals

88%

SV Morlautern 2+ goals

62%

SV Morlautern 3+ goals

34%

Arminia Ludwigshafen 1+ goals

89%

Arminia Ludwigshafen 2+ goals

64%

Arminia Ludwigshafen 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

SV Morlautern (draw refunded)

48%

Arminia Ludwigshafen (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Morlautern at home — creates 2.02, concedes 2.48 · 46 matches

Arminia Ludwigshafen away — creates 1.87, concedes 2.16 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Morlautern attack 2.02 + Arminia Ludwigshafen defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.09

Arminia Ludwigshafen attack 1.87 + SV Morlautern defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

SV Morlautern scores more

38%

level

20%

Arminia Ludwigshafen scores more

41%

Arminia Ludwigshafen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Arminia Ludwigshafen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff