SV Meppen 1–4 FC 08 Homburg: Result & Stats

SV Meppen

1 – 4

FC 08 Homburg

2/7/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

SV Meppen28%

×Draw19%

FC 08 Homburg53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SV MeppenExpected goals in this matchFC 08 Homburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

2.53

SV Meppen

1.83

FC 08 Homburg

2.53

FC 08 Homburg creates 38% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 15 away

2.00

creates per match

2.73

2.33

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

SV Meppen

2.00

FC 08 Homburg

2.73

allows per match

SV Meppen

2.33

FC 08 Homburg

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SV Meppen+0.00on par

FC 08 Homburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Meppen ↓

FC 08 Homburg →

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–34%

0–42%

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

SV Meppen or draw

47%

SV Meppen or FC 08 Homburg

81%

Draw or FC 08 Homburg

72%

Winning margin

SV Meppen wins by 2+

14%

FC 08 Homburg wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

SV Meppen 1+ goals

84%

SV Meppen 2+ goals

54%

SV Meppen 3+ goals

28%

FC 08 Homburg 1+ goals

92%

FC 08 Homburg 2+ goals

71%

FC 08 Homburg 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

SV Meppen (draw refunded)

35%

FC 08 Homburg (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

SV Meppen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

FC 08 Homburg away — creates 2.73, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

SV Meppen attack 2.00 + FC 08 Homburg defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

FC 08 Homburg attack 2.73 + SV Meppen defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

SV Meppen scores more

28%

level

19%

FC 08 Homburg scores more

53%

FC 08 Homburg at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FC 08 Homburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Manager: L. Beniermann

Manager: Roland Seitz