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SV Mattersburg vs WSG Wattens — Bundesliga 2018

SV Mattersburg
SV Mattersburg
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
WSG Wattens
WSG Wattens
6/30/2020BundesligaBundesliga · Relegation Round - 9Pappelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

SV Mattersburg40%
×Draw24%
WSG Wattens36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Mattersburg
1.59
WSG Wattens
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 113 away

creates per match

SV Mattersburg
1.25
WSG Wattens
1.20

allows per match

SV Mattersburg
1.79
WSG Wattens
1.94

finishing

SV Mattersburg+0.00on par
WSG Wattens+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Mattersburg ↓

WSG Wattens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

SV Mattersburg or draw
64%
SV Mattersburg or WSG Wattens
76%
Draw or WSG Wattens
60%

Winning margin

SV Mattersburg wins by 2+
20%
WSG Wattens wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

SV Mattersburg 1+ goals
80%
SV Mattersburg 2+ goals
47%
SV Mattersburg 3+ goals
21%
WSG Wattens 1+ goals
78%
WSG Wattens 2+ goals
44%
WSG Wattens 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

SV Mattersburg (draw refunded)
53%
WSG Wattens (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Mattersburg at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.79 · 28 matches

WSG Wattens away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.94 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Mattersburg attack 1.25 + WSG Wattens defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.59

WSG Wattens attack 1.20 + SV Mattersburg defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SV Mattersburg scores more
40%
level
24%
WSG Wattens scores more
36%

SV Mattersburg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SV Mattersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SV Mattersburg vs WSG Wattens

SV Mattersburg beat WSG Wattens 4-1 in Bundesliga on June 30, 2020.

The match was played at Pappelstadion in Mattersburg.