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SV Mattersburg vs Admira Wacker — Bundesliga 2018

SV Mattersburg
SV Mattersburg
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Admira Wacker
Admira Wacker
12/1/2018BundesligaBundesliga · Round 16Pappelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

SV Mattersburg40%
×Draw24%
Admira Wacker36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Mattersburg
1.54
Admira Wacker
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 64 away

creates per match

SV Mattersburg
1.25
Admira Wacker
1.09

allows per match

SV Mattersburg
1.79
Admira Wacker
1.83

finishing

SV Mattersburg+0.00on par
Admira Wacker+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Mattersburg ↓

Admira Wacker →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

SV Mattersburg or draw
64%
SV Mattersburg or Admira Wacker
76%
Draw or Admira Wacker
60%

Winning margin

SV Mattersburg wins by 2+
20%
Admira Wacker wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

SV Mattersburg 1+ goals
79%
SV Mattersburg 2+ goals
45%
SV Mattersburg 3+ goals
20%
Admira Wacker 1+ goals
76%
Admira Wacker 2+ goals
42%
Admira Wacker 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

SV Mattersburg (draw refunded)
53%
Admira Wacker (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Mattersburg at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.79 · 28 matches

Admira Wacker away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.83 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Mattersburg attack 1.25 + Admira Wacker defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.54

Admira Wacker attack 1.09 + SV Mattersburg defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SV Mattersburg scores more
40%
level
24%
Admira Wacker scores more
36%

SV Mattersburg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SV Mattersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bundesliga: SV Mattersburg 2–2 Admira Wacker

SV Mattersburg and Admira Wacker drew 2-2 in Bundesliga on December 1, 2018.

The match was played at Pappelstadion in Mattersburg.