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SV Linx vs Oberachern — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

SV Linx
SV Linx
CANC
16:30
Oberachern
Oberachern
5/5/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 33Hans-Weber Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

SV Linx37%
×Draw23%
Oberachern40%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Linx
1.59
Oberachern
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 92 away

creates per match

SV Linx
1.44
Oberachern
1.38

allows per match

SV Linx
1.96
Oberachern
1.74

finishing

SV Linx+0.00on par
Oberachern+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Linx ↓

Oberachern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

SV Linx or draw
60%
SV Linx or Oberachern
77%
Draw or Oberachern
63%

Winning margin

SV Linx wins by 2+
18%
Oberachern wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

SV Linx 1+ goals
80%
SV Linx 2+ goals
47%
SV Linx 3+ goals
21%
Oberachern 1+ goals
81%
Oberachern 2+ goals
50%
Oberachern 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

SV Linx (draw refunded)
48%
Oberachern (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Linx at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

Oberachern away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.74 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Linx attack 1.44 + Oberachern defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.59

Oberachern attack 1.38 + SV Linx defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SV Linx scores more
37%
level
23%
Oberachern scores more
40%

Oberachern at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Oberachern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SV Linx face Oberachern (Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg)

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg returns with SV Linx hosting Oberachern. Match starts May 5, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

SV Linx host Oberachern at Hans-Weber Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.