SV Linx 4–0 Lörrach-Brombach: Result & Stats

SV Linx

FT

4 – 0

Lörrach-Brombach

8/29/2021

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 4Hans-Weber Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

SV Linx55%

×Draw20%

Lörrach-Brombach25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SV LinxExpected goals in this matchLörrach-Brombach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

1.48

SV Linx

2.28

Lörrach-Brombach

1.48

SV Linx creates 54% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 26 away

1.44

creates per match

1.00

1.96

allows per match

3.12

creates per match

SV Linx

1.44

Lörrach-Brombach

1.00

allows per match

SV Linx

1.96

Lörrach-Brombach

3.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SV Linx+0.00on par

Lörrach-Brombach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Linx ↓

Lörrach-Brombach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

SV Linx or draw

75%

SV Linx or Lörrach-Brombach

80%

Draw or Lörrach-Brombach

45%

Winning margin

SV Linx wins by 2+

34%

Lörrach-Brombach wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

SV Linx 1+ goals

90%

SV Linx 2+ goals

66%

SV Linx 3+ goals

39%

Lörrach-Brombach 1+ goals

77%

Lörrach-Brombach 2+ goals

43%

Lörrach-Brombach 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

SV Linx (draw refunded)

69%

Lörrach-Brombach (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Linx at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

Lörrach-Brombach away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Linx attack 1.44 + Lörrach-Brombach defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.28

Lörrach-Brombach attack 1.00 + SV Linx defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

SV Linx scores more

55%

level

20%

Lörrach-Brombach scores more

25%

SV Linx at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "SV Linx will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff