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SV Linx vs Ilshofen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

SV Linx
SV Linx
FT
1 – 3
Ilshofen
Ilshofen
9/19/2020Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 7Hans-Weber Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

SV Linx50%
×Draw21%
Ilshofen29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Linx
2.14
Ilshofen
1.58

SV Linx creates 35% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

creates per match

SV Linx
1.44
Ilshofen
1.20

allows per match

SV Linx
1.96
Ilshofen
2.84

finishing

SV Linx+0.00on par
Ilshofen+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Linx ↓

Ilshofen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

SV Linx or draw
71%
SV Linx or Ilshofen
79%
Draw or Ilshofen
50%

Winning margin

SV Linx wins by 2+
30%
Ilshofen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

SV Linx 1+ goals
88%
SV Linx 2+ goals
63%
SV Linx 3+ goals
36%
Ilshofen 1+ goals
79%
Ilshofen 2+ goals
47%
Ilshofen 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

SV Linx (draw refunded)
64%
Ilshofen (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Linx at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

Ilshofen away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.84 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Linx attack 1.44 + Ilshofen defence 2.84 → ÷2 → 2.14

Ilshofen attack 1.20 + SV Linx defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

SV Linx scores more
50%
level
21%
Ilshofen scores more
29%

SV Linx at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "SV Linx will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: SV Linx 1–3 Ilshofen

Ilshofen beat SV Linx 3-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on September 19, 2020.

The match was played at Hans-Weber Stadion in Rheinau.