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SV Innsbruck vs Wacker Innsbruck (Am) — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

SV Innsbruck
SV Innsbruck
FT
1 – 1
Wacker Innsbruck (Am)
Wacker Innsbruck (Am)
10/8/2022Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 12Sportplatz Wiesengasse C

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

SV Innsbruck42%
×Draw22%
Wacker Innsbruck (Am)36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Innsbruck
1.85
Wacker Innsbruck (Am)
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

SV Innsbruck
1.90
Wacker Innsbruck (Am)
1.53

allows per match

SV Innsbruck
1.90
Wacker Innsbruck (Am)
1.80

finishing

SV Innsbruck+0.00on par
Wacker Innsbruck (Am)+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Innsbruck ↓

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

SV Innsbruck or draw
64%
SV Innsbruck or Wacker Innsbruck (Am)
78%
Draw or Wacker Innsbruck (Am)
58%

Winning margin

SV Innsbruck wins by 2+
22%
Wacker Innsbruck (Am) wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

SV Innsbruck 1+ goals
84%
SV Innsbruck 2+ goals
55%
SV Innsbruck 3+ goals
28%
Wacker Innsbruck (Am) 1+ goals
82%
Wacker Innsbruck (Am) 2+ goals
51%
Wacker Innsbruck (Am) 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

SV Innsbruck (draw refunded)
54%
Wacker Innsbruck (Am) (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Innsbruck at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Innsbruck attack 1.90 + Wacker Innsbruck (Am) defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.85

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) attack 1.53 + SV Innsbruck defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SV Innsbruck scores more
42%
level
22%
Wacker Innsbruck (Am) scores more
36%

SV Innsbruck at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SV Innsbruck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SV Innsbruck vs Wacker Innsbruck (Am)

SV Innsbruck and Wacker Innsbruck (Am) drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Tirol on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Wiesengasse C in Innsbruck.