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SV Innsbruck vs Swarovski Tirol II — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

SV Innsbruck
SV Innsbruck
CANC
00:00
Swarovski Tirol II
Swarovski Tirol II
4/17/2020Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 20Sportplatz Wiesengasse C

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

SV Innsbruck29%
×Draw21%
Swarovski Tirol II50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Innsbruck
1.66
Swarovski Tirol II
2.22

Swarovski Tirol II creates 34% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 48 away

creates per match

SV Innsbruck
1.90
Swarovski Tirol II
2.54

allows per match

SV Innsbruck
1.90
Swarovski Tirol II
1.42

finishing

SV Innsbruck+0.00on par
Swarovski Tirol II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Innsbruck ↓

Swarovski Tirol II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

SV Innsbruck or draw
50%
SV Innsbruck or Swarovski Tirol II
79%
Draw or Swarovski Tirol II
71%

Winning margin

SV Innsbruck wins by 2+
14%
Swarovski Tirol II wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

SV Innsbruck 1+ goals
81%
SV Innsbruck 2+ goals
49%
SV Innsbruck 3+ goals
23%
Swarovski Tirol II 1+ goals
89%
Swarovski Tirol II 2+ goals
65%
Swarovski Tirol II 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

SV Innsbruck (draw refunded)
37%
Swarovski Tirol II (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Innsbruck at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

Swarovski Tirol II away — creates 2.54, concedes 1.42 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Innsbruck attack 1.90 + Swarovski Tirol II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.66

Swarovski Tirol II attack 2.54 + SV Innsbruck defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

SV Innsbruck scores more
29%
level
21%
Swarovski Tirol II scores more
50%

Swarovski Tirol II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Swarovski Tirol II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SV Innsbruck face Swarovski Tirol II (Landesliga - Tirol)

Landesliga - Tirol returns with SV Innsbruck hosting Swarovski Tirol II. Match starts April 17, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

SV Innsbruck host Swarovski Tirol II at Sportplatz Wiesengasse C.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.