SV Innsbruck 0–5 Kundl: Result & Stats

SV Innsbruck

FT

0 – 5

Kundl

8/23/2019

Landesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 4Sportplatz Wiesengasse C

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

SV Innsbruck43%

×Draw22%

Kundl35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SV InnsbruckExpected goals in this matchKundl

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.67

SV Innsbruck

1.89

Kundl

1.67

SV Innsbruck creates 13% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 70 away

1.90

creates per match

1.44

1.90

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

SV Innsbruck

1.90

Kundl

1.44

allows per match

SV Innsbruck

1.90

Kundl

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SV Innsbruck+0.00on par

Kundl+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Innsbruck ↓

Kundl →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

SV Innsbruck or draw

65%

SV Innsbruck or Kundl

78%

Draw or Kundl

57%

Winning margin

SV Innsbruck wins by 2+

24%

Kundl wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

SV Innsbruck 1+ goals

85%

SV Innsbruck 2+ goals

56%

SV Innsbruck 3+ goals

29%

Kundl 1+ goals

81%

Kundl 2+ goals

50%

Kundl 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

SV Innsbruck (draw refunded)

56%

Kundl (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Innsbruck at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

Kundl away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.87 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Innsbruck attack 1.90 + Kundl defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.89

Kundl attack 1.44 + SV Innsbruck defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SV Innsbruck scores more

43%

level

22%

Kundl scores more

35%

SV Innsbruck at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SV Innsbruck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff