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SV Horn vs Gloggnitz — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

SV Horn
SV Horn
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Gloggnitz
Gloggnitz
9/5/2025Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 6Sparkasse Horn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

SV Horn58%
×Draw20%
Gloggnitz21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Horn
2.21
Gloggnitz
1.27

SV Horn creates 74% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 31 away

creates per match

SV Horn
2.31
Gloggnitz
1.74

allows per match

SV Horn
0.81
Gloggnitz
2.10

finishing

SV Horn+0.00on par
Gloggnitz+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Horn ↓

Gloggnitz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

SV Horn or draw
79%
SV Horn or Gloggnitz
80%
Draw or Gloggnitz
42%

Winning margin

SV Horn wins by 2+
36%
Gloggnitz wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

SV Horn 1+ goals
89%
SV Horn 2+ goals
65%
SV Horn 3+ goals
38%
Gloggnitz 1+ goals
72%
Gloggnitz 2+ goals
36%
Gloggnitz 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

SV Horn (draw refunded)
73%
Gloggnitz (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Horn at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Gloggnitz away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Horn attack 2.31 + Gloggnitz defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.21

Gloggnitz attack 1.74 + SV Horn defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

SV Horn scores more
58%
level
20%
Gloggnitz scores more
21%

SV Horn at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "SV Horn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SV Horn vs Gloggnitz

SV Horn beat Gloggnitz 4-0 in Regionalliga - Ost on September 5, 2025.

The match was played at Sparkasse Horn Arena in Horn.