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SV Horn vs FC Wurzburger Kickers — Friendlies Clubs 2026

SV Horn
SV Horn
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
FC Wurzburger Kickers
FC Wurzburger Kickers
8/20/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

SV Horn30%
×Draw21%
FC Wurzburger Kickers49%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Horn
1.59
FC Wurzburger Kickers
2.09

FC Wurzburger Kickers creates 31% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

creates per match

SV Horn
0.88
FC Wurzburger Kickers
2.30

allows per match

SV Horn
1.88
FC Wurzburger Kickers
2.30

finishing

SV Horn+0.00on par
FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Horn ↓

FC Wurzburger Kickers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

SV Horn or draw
51%
SV Horn or FC Wurzburger Kickers
79%
Draw or FC Wurzburger Kickers
70%

Winning margin

SV Horn wins by 2+
14%
FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

SV Horn 1+ goals
80%
SV Horn 2+ goals
47%
SV Horn 3+ goals
21%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals
88%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals
62%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

SV Horn (draw refunded)
38%
FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Horn at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers away — creates 2.30, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Horn attack 0.88 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.59

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 2.30 + SV Horn defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

SV Horn scores more
30%
level
21%
FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more
49%

FC Wurzburger Kickers at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Wurzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: SV Horn 2–2 FC Wurzburger Kickers

SV Horn and FC Wurzburger Kickers drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on August 20, 2020.