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SV Elversberg vs Preußen Münster — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SV Elversberg
SV Elversberg
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Preußen Münster
Preußen Münster
3/15/20252. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 26URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

SV Elversberg52%
×Draw23%
Preußen Münster26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Elversberg
1.84
Preußen Münster
1.23

SV Elversberg creates 50% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

creates per match

SV Elversberg
1.90
Preußen Münster
1.15

allows per match

SV Elversberg
1.31
Preußen Münster
1.79

finishing

SV Elversberg+0.00on par
Preußen Münster+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Elversberg ↓

Preußen Münster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

SV Elversberg or draw
74%
SV Elversberg or Preußen Münster
77%
Draw or Preußen Münster
48%

Winning margin

SV Elversberg wins by 2+
29%
Preußen Münster wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

SV Elversberg 1+ goals
84%
SV Elversberg 2+ goals
55%
SV Elversberg 3+ goals
28%
Preußen Münster 1+ goals
71%
Preußen Münster 2+ goals
35%
Preußen Münster 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

SV Elversberg (draw refunded)
67%
Preußen Münster (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Elversberg at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

Preußen Münster away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Elversberg attack 1.90 + Preußen Münster defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.84

Preußen Münster attack 1.15 + SV Elversberg defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

SV Elversberg scores more
52%
level
23%
Preußen Münster scores more
26%

SV Elversberg at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "SV Elversberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SV Elversberg vs Preußen Münster

Preußen Münster beat SV Elversberg 1-0 in 2. Bundesliga on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde in Spiesen-Elversberg.