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SV Elversberg vs Hannover 96 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SV Elversberg
SV Elversberg
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Hannover 96
Hannover 96
10/31/20252. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 11Waldstadion Kaiserlinde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

SV Elversberg46%
×Draw24%
Hannover 9630%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Elversberg
1.71
Hannover 96
1.35

SV Elversberg creates 27% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 119 away

creates per match

SV Elversberg
1.90
Hannover 96
1.40

allows per match

SV Elversberg
1.31
Hannover 96
1.53

finishing

SV Elversberg+0.00on par
Hannover 96+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Elversberg ↓

Hannover 96 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

SV Elversberg or draw
70%
SV Elversberg or Hannover 96
76%
Draw or Hannover 96
54%

Winning margin

SV Elversberg wins by 2+
24%
Hannover 96 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

SV Elversberg 1+ goals
82%
SV Elversberg 2+ goals
51%
SV Elversberg 3+ goals
24%
Hannover 96 1+ goals
74%
Hannover 96 2+ goals
39%
Hannover 96 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

SV Elversberg (draw refunded)
60%
Hannover 96 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Elversberg at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

Hannover 96 away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.53 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Elversberg attack 1.90 + Hannover 96 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.71

Hannover 96 attack 1.40 + SV Elversberg defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

SV Elversberg scores more
46%
level
24%
Hannover 96 scores more
30%

SV Elversberg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "SV Elversberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SV Elversberg vs Hannover 96

SV Elversberg and Hannover 96 drew 2-2 in 2. Bundesliga on October 31, 2025.

The match was played at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde in Spiesen-Elversberg.