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SV Elversberg vs FC St. Pauli — DFB Pokal 2018

SV Elversberg
SV Elversberg
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli
9/13/2020DFB PokalDFB Pokal · 1st RoundURSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

SV Elversberg29%
×Draw20%
FC St. Pauli51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Elversberg
1.78
FC St. Pauli
2.37

FC St. Pauli creates 33% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

SV Elversberg
1.33
FC St. Pauli
2.56

allows per match

SV Elversberg
2.17
FC St. Pauli
2.22

finishing

SV Elversberg+0.00on par
FC St. Pauli+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Elversberg ↓

FC St. Pauli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

SV Elversberg or draw
49%
SV Elversberg or FC St. Pauli
80%
Draw or FC St. Pauli
71%

Winning margin

SV Elversberg wins by 2+
14%
FC St. Pauli wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

SV Elversberg 1+ goals
83%
SV Elversberg 2+ goals
53%
SV Elversberg 3+ goals
26%
FC St. Pauli 1+ goals
91%
FC St. Pauli 2+ goals
68%
FC St. Pauli 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

SV Elversberg (draw refunded)
37%
FC St. Pauli (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Elversberg at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

FC St. Pauli away — creates 2.56, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Elversberg attack 1.33 + FC St. Pauli defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.78

FC St. Pauli attack 2.56 + SV Elversberg defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

SV Elversberg scores more
29%
level
20%
FC St. Pauli scores more
51%

FC St. Pauli at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC St. Pauli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

DFB Pokal: SV Elversberg 4–2 FC St. Pauli

SV Elversberg beat FC St. Pauli 4-2 in DFB Pokal on September 13, 2020.

The match was played at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde in Spiesen-Elversberg.