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SV Elversberg vs Borussia Monchengladbach — DFB Pokal 2018

SV Elversberg
SV Elversberg
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Borussia Monchengladbach
Borussia Monchengladbach
J. Villalba 83' (pen)
P. Herrmann 69'
L. Stindl 35'
L. Bénes 21'
H. Wolf 5'
12/22/2020DFB PokalDFB Pokal · 2nd RoundURSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

SV Elversberg14%
×Draw16%
Borussia Monchengladbach71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Elversberg
1.23
Borussia Monchengladbach
2.88

Borussia Monchengladbach creates 134% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 15 away

creates per match

SV Elversberg
1.33
Borussia Monchengladbach
3.60

allows per match

SV Elversberg
2.17
Borussia Monchengladbach
1.13

finishing

SV Elversberg+0.00on par
Borussia Monchengladbach+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Elversberg ↓

Borussia Monchengladbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

SV Elversberg or draw
29%
SV Elversberg or Borussia Monchengladbach
84%
Draw or Borussia Monchengladbach
86%

Winning margin

SV Elversberg wins by 2+
5%
Borussia Monchengladbach wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

SV Elversberg 1+ goals
71%
SV Elversberg 2+ goals
35%
SV Elversberg 3+ goals
13%
Borussia Monchengladbach 1+ goals
94%
Borussia Monchengladbach 2+ goals
78%
Borussia Monchengladbach 3+ goals
54%

Draw no bet

SV Elversberg (draw refunded)
16%
Borussia Monchengladbach (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Elversberg at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Borussia Monchengladbach away — creates 3.60, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Elversberg attack 1.33 + Borussia Monchengladbach defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Borussia Monchengladbach attack 3.60 + SV Elversberg defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

SV Elversberg scores more
14%
level
16%
Borussia Monchengladbach scores more
71%

Borussia Monchengladbach at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Borussia Monchengladbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
L. BénesBorussia MonchengladbachBorussia Monchengladbach · M
8.7

Match Events

5'
H. Wolf↳ C. Kramer
21'
L. Bénes
26'
Sinan Tekerci
31'
Sinan Tekerci
31'
Sinan Tekerci
35'
L. Stindl
46'
N. Karger← Isra Suero
46'
M. Lang← S. Lainer
46'
I. Traoré← J. Hofmann
57'
K. Koffi← M. Feil
63'
László Bénes
64'
F. Neuhaus← L. Stindl
64'
P. Herrmann← B. Embolo
69'
M. Mustafić← E. Dacaj
69'
P. Herrmann↳ I. Traoré
78'
J. Villalba← C. Kramer
83'
J. VillalbaPenalty
84'
T. Politakis← L. Dürholtz

Possession

28%SV

Shots

6SV

Pass accuracy

46%SV

Statistics

SVBorussia
Overview
28%Possession72%
6Total Shots19
2Corners7
9Fouls12
Shots
6Total Shots19
2On Target10
2Off Target6
2Blocked3
4Inside Box14
2Outside Box5
Passing
28%Possession72%
313Total Passes790
237Accurate Passes714
76%Pass Accuracy90%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls12
2Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: SV Elversberg vs Borussia Monchengladbach

Borussia Monchengladbach beat SV Elversberg 5-0 in DFB Pokal on December 22, 2020.

Goals: H. Wolf (5'), L. Bénes (21'), L. Stindl (35'), P. Herrmann (69'), J. Villalba (83' pen).

Borussia Monchengladbach controlled possession (72%) and registered 19 shots to 6.

The match was played at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde in Spiesen-Elversberg.