SV Drochtersen/Assel 3–0 Weiche Flensburg

SV Drochtersen/Assel

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Weiche Flensburg

M. Fernandes 54', 9'

H. Hyseni 25'

11/15/2024

League #84 · Nord - 19Kehdinger Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

SV Drochtersen/Assel44%

×Draw23%

Weiche Flensburg32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SV Drochtersen/AsselExpected goals in this matchWeiche Flensburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.44

SV Drochtersen/Assel

1.73

Weiche Flensburg

1.44

SV Drochtersen/Assel creates 20% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 8 away

1.84

creates per match

1.88

1.00

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

SV Drochtersen/Assel

1.84

Weiche Flensburg

1.88

allows per match

SV Drochtersen/Assel

1.00

Weiche Flensburg

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SV Drochtersen/Assel+0.00on par

Weiche Flensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Drochtersen/Assel ↓

Weiche Flensburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

SV Drochtersen/Assel or draw

68%

SV Drochtersen/Assel or Weiche Flensburg

77%

Draw or Weiche Flensburg

56%

Winning margin

SV Drochtersen/Assel wins by 2+

23%

Weiche Flensburg wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

SV Drochtersen/Assel 1+ goals

82%

SV Drochtersen/Assel 2+ goals

52%

SV Drochtersen/Assel 3+ goals

25%

Weiche Flensburg 1+ goals

76%

Weiche Flensburg 2+ goals

42%

Weiche Flensburg 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

SV Drochtersen/Assel (draw refunded)

58%

Weiche Flensburg (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Drochtersen/Assel at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Weiche Flensburg away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Drochtersen/Assel attack 1.84 + Weiche Flensburg defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.73

Weiche Flensburg attack 1.88 + SV Drochtersen/Assel defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

SV Drochtersen/Assel scores more

44%

level

23%

Weiche Flensburg scores more

32%

SV Drochtersen/Assel at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "SV Drochtersen/Assel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

M. Fernandes

25'

H. Hyseni

42'

J. Schlingmann← J. Nwokoma

46'

M. Nagel← J. Plautz

54'

M. Fernandes

69'

P. Thieler← B. Schleemann

71'

R. Gyamenah← B. Opoku Labes

72'

M. Göttel← H. Hyseni

76'

T. Richter← S. Plechaty

78'

M. Cebulla← N. Serra

82'

S. Haut← D. Rosin

88'

P. Aue← M. Fernandes

88'

N. Kurzbach← M. Cornils

SV

Weiche

1

Rust

27

▼

Plechaty

2

▼

24

4

37

7

▼

Nwokoma

10

▼

Cornils

17

Guder

9

▼

Labes

23

Sarr

30

Siefkes

4

▼

3

12

7

16

▼

Plautz

26

Giwah

6

Steinmann

25

▼

Rosin

8

⚽2

▼

Fernandes

10

⚽

▼

Hyseni

Manager: O. Ioannou

46'▲M. Nagel←▼J. Plautz

72'▲M. Göttel←▼H. Hyseni

78'▲M. Cebulla←▼N. Serra

82'▲S. Haut←▼D. Rosin

88'▲P. Aue←▼M. Fernandes

SV Drochtersen/Assel substitutes

19Nagel9Göttel31Cebulla13Haut47Aue1Heinbockel11Bär20Reincke21Steffens

Manager: T. Fröhling

42'▲J. Schlingmann←▼J. Nwokoma

69'▲P. Thieler←▼B. Schleemann

71'▲R. Gyamenah←▼B. Opoku Labes

76'▲T. Richter←▼S. Plechaty

88'▲N. Kurzbach←▼M. Cornils

Weiche Flensburg substitutes

18Schlingmann8Thieler16Gyamenah19Richter11Kurzbach22Johansson25Jović30Wulff