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SV Drochtersen/assel vs Oberneuland — Friendlies Clubs 2026

SV Drochtersen/assel
SV Drochtersen/assel
FT
4 – 0
Oberneuland
Oberneuland
8/7/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Rasenplatz Assel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

SV Drochtersen/assel57%
×Draw18%
Oberneuland25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Drochtersen/assel
2.88
Oberneuland
1.92

SV Drochtersen/assel creates 50% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

creates per match

SV Drochtersen/assel
3.00
Oberneuland
2.75

allows per match

SV Drochtersen/assel
1.09
Oberneuland
2.75

finishing

SV Drochtersen/assel+0.00on par
Oberneuland+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Drochtersen/assel ↓

Oberneuland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

SV Drochtersen/assel or draw
75%
SV Drochtersen/assel or Oberneuland
82%
Draw or Oberneuland
43%

Winning margin

SV Drochtersen/assel wins by 2+
38%
Oberneuland wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

SV Drochtersen/assel 1+ goals
94%
SV Drochtersen/assel 2+ goals
78%
SV Drochtersen/assel 3+ goals
54%
Oberneuland 1+ goals
85%
Oberneuland 2+ goals
57%
Oberneuland 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

SV Drochtersen/assel (draw refunded)
69%
Oberneuland (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Drochtersen/assel at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Oberneuland away — creates 2.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Drochtersen/assel attack 3.00 + Oberneuland defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.88

Oberneuland attack 2.75 + SV Drochtersen/assel defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

SV Drochtersen/assel scores more
57%
level
18%
Oberneuland scores more
25%

SV Drochtersen/assel at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "SV Drochtersen/assel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SV Drochtersen/assel vs Oberneuland

SV Drochtersen/assel beat Oberneuland 4-0 in Friendlies Clubs on August 7, 2020.

The match was played at Rasenplatz Assel in Drochtersen.