SV Darmstadt 98 1–1 SSV Ulm 1846: Result & Stats

SV Darmstadt 98

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

SSV Ulm 1846

F. Hornby 16'

A. Keller 18'

10/27/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 10Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SV Darmstadt 9853%

×Draw24%

SSV Ulm 184623%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SV Darmstadt 98Expected goals in this matchSSV Ulm 1846

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.01

SV Darmstadt 98

1.68

SSV Ulm 1846

1.01

SV Darmstadt 98 creates 66% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 17 away

1.83

creates per match

0.88

1.14

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

SV Darmstadt 98

1.83

SSV Ulm 1846

0.88

allows per match

SV Darmstadt 98

1.14

SSV Ulm 1846

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SV Darmstadt 98+0.00on par

SSV Ulm 1846+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Darmstadt 98 ↓

SSV Ulm 1846 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

SV Darmstadt 98 or draw

77%

SV Darmstadt 98 or SSV Ulm 1846

76%

Draw or SSV Ulm 1846

47%

Winning margin

SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+

29%

SSV Ulm 1846 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals

81%

SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals

50%

SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals

24%

SSV Ulm 1846 1+ goals

64%

SSV Ulm 1846 2+ goals

27%

SSV Ulm 1846 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)

70%

SSV Ulm 1846 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Darmstadt 98 at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.14 · 109 matches

SSV Ulm 1846 away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.83 + SSV Ulm 1846 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.68

SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.88 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

SV Darmstadt 98 scores more

53%

level

24%

SSV Ulm 1846 scores more

23%

SV Darmstadt 98 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "SV Darmstadt 98 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

A. Vukotić

SV Darmstadt 98 · D

7.9

Match Events

16'

F. Hornby↳ I. Lidberg

18'

A. Keller↳ D. Chessa

30'

Fraser Hornby

46'

M. Krattenmacher← A. Keller

60'

Aleksandar Vukotić

62'

Dennis Chessa

67'

P. Maier← L. Hyryläinen

70'

Romario Rösch

70'

F. Lakenmacher← F. Hornby

70'

T. Kempe← K. Corredor

74'

L. Röser← F. Higl

74'

B. Allgeier← R. Rösch

77'

M. Papela← A. Müller

77'

Guille Bueno← P. Förster

80'

Max Brandt

90+1'

L. Ulrich← M. Brandt

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SVSSV

Overview

69%Possession31%

16Total Shots6

4Corners2

9Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots6

5On Target4

8Off Target0

3Blocked2

10Inside Box4

6Outside Box2

Passing

69%Possession31%

652Total Passes298

582Accurate Passes217

89%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0