SV Darmstadt 98 2–1 Borussia Monchengladbach

SV Darmstadt 98

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Borussia Monchengladbach

A. Seydel 79'

P. Tietz 23'

L. Netz 48'

10/18/2022

DFB Pokal · 2nd RoundMerck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

SV Darmstadt 9826%

×Draw20%

Borussia Monchengladbach54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SV Darmstadt 98Expected goals in this matchBorussia Monchengladbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

2.30

SV Darmstadt 98

1.56

Borussia Monchengladbach

2.30

Borussia Monchengladbach creates 47% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 15 away

2.00

creates per match

3.60

1.00

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

SV Darmstadt 98

2.00

Borussia Monchengladbach

3.60

allows per match

SV Darmstadt 98

1.00

Borussia Monchengladbach

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SV Darmstadt 98+0.00on par

Borussia Monchengladbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Darmstadt 98 ↓

Borussia Monchengladbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

SV Darmstadt 98 or draw

46%

SV Darmstadt 98 or Borussia Monchengladbach

80%

Draw or Borussia Monchengladbach

74%

Winning margin

SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+

12%

Borussia Monchengladbach wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals

79%

SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals

46%

SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals

21%

Borussia Monchengladbach 1+ goals

90%

Borussia Monchengladbach 2+ goals

67%

Borussia Monchengladbach 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)

33%

Borussia Monchengladbach (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Darmstadt 98 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Borussia Monchengladbach away — creates 3.60, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 2.00 + Borussia Monchengladbach defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.56

Borussia Monchengladbach attack 3.60 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

SV Darmstadt 98 scores more

26%

level

20%

Borussia Monchengladbach scores more

54%

Borussia Monchengladbach at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Borussia Monchengladbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

M. Mehlem

SV Darmstadt 98 · F

8.0

Match Events

13'

23'

41'

43'

46'

L. Stindl← J. Hofmann

48'

L. Netz↳ A. Pléa

56'

63'

73'

78'

79'

82'

F. Ronstadt← E. Karic

83'

Y. Ben Balla← A. Seydel

83'

R. Bensebaïni← L. Netz

83'

Y. Borges Sanches← N. Ngoumou

84'

P. Herrmann← J. Scally

90+2'

C. Riedel← M. Mehlem

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SVBorussia

Overview

43%Possession57%

15Total Shots9

8Corners6

19Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots9

4On Target5

9Off Target3

2Blocked1

10Inside Box6

5Outside Box3

Passing

43%Possession57%

344Total Passes466

236Accurate Passes361

69%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls10

4Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1