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SV Breinig vs Viktoria Arnoldsweiler — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

SV Breinig
SV Breinig
CANC
14:00
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
3/7/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 17Sportplatz Breinig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

SV Breinig42%
×Draw21%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Breinig
2.04
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
1.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 36 away

creates per match

SV Breinig
1.50
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
1.36

allows per match

SV Breinig
2.45
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
2.58

finishing

SV Breinig+0.00on par
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Breinig ↓

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

SV Breinig or draw
63%
SV Breinig or Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
79%
Draw or Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
58%

Winning margin

SV Breinig wins by 2+
23%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

SV Breinig 1+ goals
87%
SV Breinig 2+ goals
60%
SV Breinig 3+ goals
33%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 1+ goals
85%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 2+ goals
57%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

SV Breinig (draw refunded)
53%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Breinig at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.45 · 20 matches

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.58 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Breinig attack 1.50 + Viktoria Arnoldsweiler defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.04

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler attack 1.36 + SV Breinig defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SV Breinig scores more
42%
level
21%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler scores more
37%

SV Breinig at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SV Breinig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SV Breinig vs Viktoria Arnoldsweiler — Match Preview

SV Breinig face Viktoria Arnoldsweiler on March 7, 2021 in this Oberliga - Mittelrhein fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

SV Breinig host Viktoria Arnoldsweiler at Sportplatz Breinig.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.