SV Babelsberg 03 0–0 Viktoria Berlin

SV Babelsberg 03

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Viktoria Berlin

1/14/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Karl-Liebknecht-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

SV Babelsberg 0325%

×Draw19%

Viktoria Berlin56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SV Babelsberg 03Expected goals in this matchViktoria Berlin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

2.52

SV Babelsberg 03

1.65

Viktoria Berlin

2.52

Viktoria Berlin creates 53% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

2.13

creates per match

3.67

1.38

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

SV Babelsberg 03

2.13

Viktoria Berlin

3.67

allows per match

SV Babelsberg 03

1.38

Viktoria Berlin

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SV Babelsberg 03+0.00on par

Viktoria Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Babelsberg 03 ↓

Viktoria Berlin →

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–43%

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

SV Babelsberg 03 or draw

44%

SV Babelsberg 03 or Viktoria Berlin

81%

Draw or Viktoria Berlin

75%

Winning margin

SV Babelsberg 03 wins by 2+

12%

Viktoria Berlin wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

SV Babelsberg 03 1+ goals

81%

SV Babelsberg 03 2+ goals

49%

SV Babelsberg 03 3+ goals

23%

Viktoria Berlin 1+ goals

92%

Viktoria Berlin 2+ goals

71%

Viktoria Berlin 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

SV Babelsberg 03 (draw refunded)

31%

Viktoria Berlin (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

SV Babelsberg 03 at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Viktoria Berlin away — creates 3.67, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

SV Babelsberg 03 attack 2.13 + Viktoria Berlin defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.65

Viktoria Berlin attack 3.67 + SV Babelsberg 03 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 2.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

SV Babelsberg 03 scores more

25%

level

19%

Viktoria Berlin scores more

56%

Viktoria Berlin at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Viktoria Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff