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SV Babelsberg 03 vs Schöningen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

SV Babelsberg 03
SV Babelsberg 03
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Schöningen
Schöningen
L. Butkovic 89'
M. Covic 87'
W. Evseev 81'
J. Njoya 31'
1/18/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

SV Babelsberg 0344%
×Draw20%
Schöningen36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Babelsberg 03
2.29
Schöningen
2.06

SV Babelsberg 03 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

SV Babelsberg 03
2.09
Schöningen
2.40

allows per match

SV Babelsberg 03
1.73
Schöningen
2.50

finishing

SV Babelsberg 03+0.00on par
Schöningen+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Babelsberg 03 ↓

Schöningen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

SV Babelsberg 03 or draw
64%
SV Babelsberg 03 or Schöningen
80%
Draw or Schöningen
56%

Winning margin

SV Babelsberg 03 wins by 2+
26%
Schöningen wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

SV Babelsberg 03 1+ goals
90%
SV Babelsberg 03 2+ goals
66%
SV Babelsberg 03 3+ goals
40%
Schöningen 1+ goals
87%
Schöningen 2+ goals
61%
Schöningen 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

SV Babelsberg 03 (draw refunded)
55%
Schöningen (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Babelsberg 03 at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Schöningen away — creates 2.40, concedes 2.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Babelsberg 03 attack 2.09 + Schöningen defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.29

Schöningen attack 2.40 + SV Babelsberg 03 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

SV Babelsberg 03 scores more
44%
level
20%
Schöningen scores more
36%

SV Babelsberg 03 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "SV Babelsberg 03 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
J. Njoya
81'
W. Evseev
87'
M. Covic
89'
L. Butkovic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: SV Babelsberg 03 2–2 Schöningen

SV Babelsberg 03 and Schöningen drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 18, 2026.

Goals: J. Njoya (31'), W. Evseev (81'), M. Covic (87'), L. Butkovic (89').