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SV Babelsberg 03 vs Lichtenberg — Friendlies Clubs 2026

SV Babelsberg 03
SV Babelsberg 03
FT
2 – 0
Lichtenberg
Lichtenberg
1/13/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Kunstrasen Karl-Liebknecht-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

SV Babelsberg 0347%
×Draw20%
Lichtenberg33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Babelsberg 03
2.25
Lichtenberg
1.88

SV Babelsberg 03 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

SV Babelsberg 03
2.13
Lichtenberg
2.38

allows per match

SV Babelsberg 03
1.38
Lichtenberg
2.38

finishing

SV Babelsberg 03+0.00on par
Lichtenberg+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Babelsberg 03 ↓

Lichtenberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

SV Babelsberg 03 or draw
67%
SV Babelsberg 03 or Lichtenberg
80%
Draw or Lichtenberg
53%

Winning margin

SV Babelsberg 03 wins by 2+
27%
Lichtenberg wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

SV Babelsberg 03 1+ goals
89%
SV Babelsberg 03 2+ goals
65%
SV Babelsberg 03 3+ goals
39%
Lichtenberg 1+ goals
85%
Lichtenberg 2+ goals
56%
Lichtenberg 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

SV Babelsberg 03 (draw refunded)
59%
Lichtenberg (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Babelsberg 03 at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Lichtenberg away — creates 2.38, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Babelsberg 03 attack 2.13 + Lichtenberg defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.25

Lichtenberg attack 2.38 + SV Babelsberg 03 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

SV Babelsberg 03 scores more
47%
level
20%
Lichtenberg scores more
33%

SV Babelsberg 03 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SV Babelsberg 03 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SV Babelsberg 03 vs Lichtenberg

SV Babelsberg 03 beat Lichtenberg 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Kunstrasen Karl-Liebknecht-Stadion in Potsdam.