SV Babelsberg 03 4–1 Lichtenberg: Result & Stats

SV Babelsberg 03

FT

4 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lichtenberg

P. Wolf 84'

B. Rangelov 78'

P. Lela 74'

D. Frahn 61' (pen)

S. Reiniger 42'

3/7/2020

Regionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 25Karl-Liebknecht-Stadion (Potsdam)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

SV Babelsberg 0354%

×Draw21%

Lichtenberg24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SV Babelsberg 03Expected goals in this matchLichtenberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.30

SV Babelsberg 03

2.04

Lichtenberg

1.30

SV Babelsberg 03 creates 57% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 5 away

1.88

creates per match

1.40

1.21

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

SV Babelsberg 03

1.88

Lichtenberg

1.40

allows per match

SV Babelsberg 03

1.21

Lichtenberg

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SV Babelsberg 03+0.00on par

Lichtenberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Babelsberg 03 ↓

Lichtenberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

SV Babelsberg 03 or draw

76%

SV Babelsberg 03 or Lichtenberg

79%

Draw or Lichtenberg

46%

Winning margin

SV Babelsberg 03 wins by 2+

32%

Lichtenberg wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

SV Babelsberg 03 1+ goals

87%

SV Babelsberg 03 2+ goals

60%

SV Babelsberg 03 3+ goals

33%

Lichtenberg 1+ goals

73%

Lichtenberg 2+ goals

37%

Lichtenberg 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

SV Babelsberg 03 (draw refunded)

69%

Lichtenberg (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Babelsberg 03 at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

Lichtenberg away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Babelsberg 03 attack 1.88 + Lichtenberg defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.04

Lichtenberg attack 1.40 + SV Babelsberg 03 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

SV Babelsberg 03 scores more

54%

level

21%

Lichtenberg scores more

24%

SV Babelsberg 03 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "SV Babelsberg 03 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

A. Wuthe← M. Rausch

42'

S. Reiniger

59'

P. Wolf← D. Danko

61'

D. FrahnPenalty

68'

N. Fiegen

70'

T. Dombrowa← M. Trianni

74'

P. Lela

78'

B. Rangelov

80'

M. Künne← J. Hentschel

84'

P. Jahn← T. Brechler

84'

P. Wolf

87'

K. Pino Tellez← S. Reimann

SV

Lichtenberg

1

Wollert

33

▼

Rausch

8

▼

Hentschel

5

⚽

7

4

17

3

10

31

9

▼

Brechler

1

Gladrow

36

Çepni

30

⚽

Lela

26

Awassi

21

▼

Reimann

18

▼

Danko

13

Siebeck

14

Koch

10

▼

Trianni

32

⚽

Frahn

8

⚽

Rangelov

Manager: P. Uzelac

59'▲P. Wolf←▼D. Danko

70'▲T. Dombrowa←▼M. Trianni

87'▲K. Pino Tellez←▼S. Reimann

SV Babelsberg 03 substitutes

19Wolf34Dombrowa39Tellez3Rode11Nattermann31Picak33Müller

Manager: U. Lehmann

22'▲A. Wuthe←▼M. Rausch

80'▲M. Künne←▼J. Hentschel

84'▲P. Jahn←▼T. Brechler

Lichtenberg substitutes

36Wuthe13Künne11Jahn6Ohlow16Schöps20Sinan22Pflug