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SV Babelsberg 03 vs BFC Preussen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

SV Babelsberg 03
SV Babelsberg 03
CANC
11:00
BFC Preussen
BFC Preussen
1/11/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Karl-Liebknecht-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

SV Babelsberg 0341%
×Draw22%
BFC Preussen36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Babelsberg 03
1.82
BFC Preussen
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

SV Babelsberg 03
2.09
BFC Preussen
1.67

allows per match

SV Babelsberg 03
1.73
BFC Preussen
1.56

finishing

SV Babelsberg 03+0.00on par
BFC Preussen+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Babelsberg 03 ↓

BFC Preussen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

SV Babelsberg 03 or draw
64%
SV Babelsberg 03 or BFC Preussen
78%
Draw or BFC Preussen
59%

Winning margin

SV Babelsberg 03 wins by 2+
22%
BFC Preussen wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

SV Babelsberg 03 1+ goals
84%
SV Babelsberg 03 2+ goals
54%
SV Babelsberg 03 3+ goals
27%
BFC Preussen 1+ goals
82%
BFC Preussen 2+ goals
51%
BFC Preussen 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

SV Babelsberg 03 (draw refunded)
53%
BFC Preussen (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Babelsberg 03 at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

BFC Preussen away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Babelsberg 03 attack 2.09 + BFC Preussen defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.82

BFC Preussen attack 1.67 + SV Babelsberg 03 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

SV Babelsberg 03 scores more
41%
level
22%
BFC Preussen scores more
36%

SV Babelsberg 03 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "SV Babelsberg 03 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SV Babelsberg 03 face BFC Preussen (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with SV Babelsberg 03 hosting BFC Preussen. Match starts January 11, 2025. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

SV Babelsberg 03 host BFC Preussen at Karl-Liebknecht-Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.