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Suzhou Dongwu vs Xinjiang Tianshan — League One 2018

Suzhou Dongwu
Suzhou Dongwu
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Xinjiang Tianshan
Xinjiang Tianshan
7/18/2021League OneLeague One · 2nd Phase - 2Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Suzhou Dongwu55%
×Draw25%
Xinjiang Tianshan20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suzhou Dongwu
1.59
Xinjiang Tianshan
0.86

Suzhou Dongwu creates 85% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 72 away

creates per match

Suzhou Dongwu
1.04
Xinjiang Tianshan
0.63

allows per match

Suzhou Dongwu
1.10
Xinjiang Tianshan
2.15

finishing

Suzhou Dongwu+0.00on par
Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suzhou Dongwu ↓

Xinjiang Tianshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Suzhou Dongwu or draw
80%
Suzhou Dongwu or Xinjiang Tianshan
75%
Draw or Xinjiang Tianshan
45%

Winning margin

Suzhou Dongwu wins by 2+
29%
Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Suzhou Dongwu 1+ goals
80%
Suzhou Dongwu 2+ goals
47%
Suzhou Dongwu 3+ goals
21%
Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals
58%
Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals
21%
Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Suzhou Dongwu (draw refunded)
73%
Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suzhou Dongwu at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.10 · 94 matches

Xinjiang Tianshan away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.15 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suzhou Dongwu attack 1.04 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.59

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 0.63 + Suzhou Dongwu defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Suzhou Dongwu scores more
55%
level
25%
Xinjiang Tianshan scores more
20%

Suzhou Dongwu at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Suzhou Dongwu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Suzhou Dongwu 1–1 Xinjiang Tianshan

Suzhou Dongwu and Xinjiang Tianshan drew 1-1 in League One on July 18, 2021.

The match was played at Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base in Dalian.