Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Suzhou Dongwu vs Wuxi Wugou — League One 2026

Suzhou Dongwu
Suzhou Dongwu
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wuxi Wugou
Wuxi Wugou
7/21/2024League OneLeague One · Round 18Suzhou City Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Suzhou Dongwu46%
×Draw26%
Wuxi Wugou28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suzhou Dongwu
1.49
Wuxi Wugou
1.10

Suzhou Dongwu creates 35% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 38 away

creates per match

Suzhou Dongwu
1.03
Wuxi Wugou
1.13

allows per match

Suzhou Dongwu
1.08
Wuxi Wugou
1.95

finishing

Suzhou Dongwu+0.00on par
Wuxi Wugou+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suzhou Dongwu ↓

Wuxi Wugou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Suzhou Dongwu or draw
72%
Suzhou Dongwu or Wuxi Wugou
74%
Draw or Wuxi Wugou
54%

Winning margin

Suzhou Dongwu wins by 2+
23%
Wuxi Wugou wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Suzhou Dongwu 1+ goals
77%
Suzhou Dongwu 2+ goals
44%
Suzhou Dongwu 3+ goals
19%
Wuxi Wugou 1+ goals
67%
Wuxi Wugou 2+ goals
30%
Wuxi Wugou 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Suzhou Dongwu (draw refunded)
62%
Wuxi Wugou (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suzhou Dongwu at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.08 · 95 matches

Wuxi Wugou away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.95 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suzhou Dongwu attack 1.03 + Wuxi Wugou defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.49

Wuxi Wugou attack 1.13 + Suzhou Dongwu defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Suzhou Dongwu scores more
46%
level
26%
Wuxi Wugou scores more
28%

Suzhou Dongwu at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Suzhou Dongwu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Suzhou Dongwu 2–0 Wuxi Wugou

Suzhou Dongwu beat Wuxi Wugou 2-0 in League One on July 21, 2024.

The match was played at Suzhou City Sports Centre in Suzhou.