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Suzhou Dongwu vs Kunshan — League One 2018

Suzhou Dongwu
Suzhou Dongwu
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kunshan
Kunshan
7/27/2021League OneLeague One · 2nd Phase - 4Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Suzhou Dongwu24%
×Draw26%
Kunshan50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suzhou Dongwu
0.93
Kunshan
1.48

Kunshan creates 59% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 42 away

creates per match

Suzhou Dongwu
1.04
Kunshan
1.86

allows per match

Suzhou Dongwu
1.10
Kunshan
0.81

finishing

Suzhou Dongwu+0.00on par
Kunshan+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suzhou Dongwu ↓

Kunshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Suzhou Dongwu or draw
50%
Suzhou Dongwu or Kunshan
74%
Draw or Kunshan
76%

Winning margin

Suzhou Dongwu wins by 2+
8%
Kunshan wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Suzhou Dongwu 1+ goals
61%
Suzhou Dongwu 2+ goals
24%
Suzhou Dongwu 3+ goals
7%
Kunshan 1+ goals
77%
Kunshan 2+ goals
43%
Kunshan 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Suzhou Dongwu (draw refunded)
32%
Kunshan (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suzhou Dongwu at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.10 · 94 matches

Kunshan away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.81 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suzhou Dongwu attack 1.04 + Kunshan defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.93

Kunshan attack 1.86 + Suzhou Dongwu defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Suzhou Dongwu scores more
24%
level
26%
Kunshan scores more
50%

Kunshan at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kunshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Suzhou Dongwu 1–1 Kunshan

Suzhou Dongwu and Kunshan drew 1-1 in League One on July 27, 2021.

The match was played at Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base in Dalian.