Suzhou Dongwu 1–0 Hebei Kungfu: Result & Stats

Suzhou Dongwu

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hebei Kungfu

6/29/2024

League One · Round 15Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Suzhou Dongwu33%

×Draw30%

Hebei Kungfu37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Suzhou DongwuExpected goals in this matchHebei Kungfu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.11

Suzhou Dongwu

1.03

Hebei Kungfu

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 95 home / 69 away

1.03

creates per match

1.14

1.08

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Suzhou Dongwu

1.03

Hebei Kungfu

1.14

allows per match

Suzhou Dongwu

1.08

Hebei Kungfu

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Suzhou Dongwu+0.00on par

Hebei Kungfu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suzhou Dongwu ↓

Hebei Kungfu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Suzhou Dongwu or draw

63%

Suzhou Dongwu or Hebei Kungfu

70%

Draw or Hebei Kungfu

67%

Winning margin

Suzhou Dongwu wins by 2+

13%

Hebei Kungfu wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Suzhou Dongwu 1+ goals

64%

Suzhou Dongwu 2+ goals

28%

Suzhou Dongwu 3+ goals

9%

Hebei Kungfu 1+ goals

67%

Hebei Kungfu 2+ goals

30%

Hebei Kungfu 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Suzhou Dongwu (draw refunded)

47%

Hebei Kungfu (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suzhou Dongwu at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.08 · 95 matches

Hebei Kungfu away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.03 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suzhou Dongwu attack 1.03 + Hebei Kungfu defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.03

Hebei Kungfu attack 1.14 + Suzhou Dongwu defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Suzhou Dongwu scores more

33%

level

30%

Hebei Kungfu scores more

37%

Hebei Kungfu at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hebei Kungfu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff