Suzhou Dongwu 1–2 Guangzhou Evergrande FC

Suzhou Dongwu

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

8/12/2023

League One · Round 18Kunshan Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Suzhou Dongwu35%

×Draw27%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Suzhou DongwuExpected goals in this matchGuangzhou Evergrande FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.33

Suzhou Dongwu

1.25

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 30 away

1.04

creates per match

1.57

1.10

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Suzhou Dongwu

1.04

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.57

allows per match

Suzhou Dongwu

1.10

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Suzhou Dongwu+0.00on par

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suzhou Dongwu ↓

Guangzhou Evergrande FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Suzhou Dongwu or draw

61%

Suzhou Dongwu or Guangzhou Evergrande FC

73%

Draw or Guangzhou Evergrande FC

65%

Winning margin

Suzhou Dongwu wins by 2+

15%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Suzhou Dongwu 1+ goals

71%

Suzhou Dongwu 2+ goals

36%

Suzhou Dongwu 3+ goals

13%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals

74%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals

38%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Suzhou Dongwu (draw refunded)

47%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suzhou Dongwu at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.10 · 94 matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suzhou Dongwu attack 1.04 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.25

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.57 + Suzhou Dongwu defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Suzhou Dongwu scores more

35%

level

27%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more

39%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff