Suzhou Dongwu 1–3 Guangxi Baoyun: Result & Stats

Suzhou Dongwu

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Guangxi Baoyun

10/28/2023

League One · Round 29Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Suzhou Dongwu40%

×Draw30%

Guangxi Baoyun31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Suzhou DongwuExpected goals in this matchGuangxi Baoyun

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.98

Suzhou Dongwu

1.15

Guangxi Baoyun

0.98

Suzhou Dongwu creates 17% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 63 away

1.04

creates per match

0.86

1.10

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Suzhou Dongwu

1.04

Guangxi Baoyun

0.86

allows per match

Suzhou Dongwu

1.10

Guangxi Baoyun

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Suzhou Dongwu+0.00on par

Guangxi Baoyun+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suzhou Dongwu ↓

Guangxi Baoyun →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Suzhou Dongwu or draw

69%

Suzhou Dongwu or Guangxi Baoyun

70%

Draw or Guangxi Baoyun

60%

Winning margin

Suzhou Dongwu wins by 2+

17%

Guangxi Baoyun wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Suzhou Dongwu 1+ goals

68%

Suzhou Dongwu 2+ goals

32%

Suzhou Dongwu 3+ goals

11%

Guangxi Baoyun 1+ goals

62%

Guangxi Baoyun 2+ goals

26%

Guangxi Baoyun 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Suzhou Dongwu (draw refunded)

56%

Guangxi Baoyun (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suzhou Dongwu at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.10 · 94 matches

Guangxi Baoyun away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.25 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suzhou Dongwu attack 1.04 + Guangxi Baoyun defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

Guangxi Baoyun attack 0.86 + Suzhou Dongwu defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Suzhou Dongwu scores more

40%

level

30%

Guangxi Baoyun scores more

31%

Suzhou Dongwu at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Suzhou Dongwu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff