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Suzhou Dongwu vs Dantong Hantong — League One 2018

Suzhou Dongwu
Suzhou Dongwu
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dantong Hantong
Dantong Hantong
9/17/2023League OneLeague One · Round 24Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Suzhou Dongwu43%
×Draw30%
Dantong Hantong27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suzhou Dongwu
1.16
Dantong Hantong
0.85

Suzhou Dongwu creates 36% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 15 away

creates per match

Suzhou Dongwu
1.04
Dantong Hantong
0.60

allows per match

Suzhou Dongwu
1.10
Dantong Hantong
1.27

finishing

Suzhou Dongwu+0.00on par
Dantong Hantong+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suzhou Dongwu ↓

Dantong Hantong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Suzhou Dongwu or draw
73%
Suzhou Dongwu or Dantong Hantong
70%
Draw or Dantong Hantong
57%

Winning margin

Suzhou Dongwu wins by 2+
18%
Dantong Hantong wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Suzhou Dongwu 1+ goals
69%
Suzhou Dongwu 2+ goals
32%
Suzhou Dongwu 3+ goals
11%
Dantong Hantong 1+ goals
57%
Dantong Hantong 2+ goals
21%
Dantong Hantong 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Suzhou Dongwu (draw refunded)
62%
Dantong Hantong (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suzhou Dongwu at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.10 · 94 matches

Dantong Hantong away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suzhou Dongwu attack 1.04 + Dantong Hantong defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.16

Dantong Hantong attack 0.60 + Suzhou Dongwu defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Suzhou Dongwu scores more
43%
level
30%
Dantong Hantong scores more
27%

Suzhou Dongwu at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Suzhou Dongwu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Suzhou Dongwu vs Dantong Hantong

Suzhou Dongwu beat Dantong Hantong 2-1 in League One on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium in Suzhou.