Suwon City FC 1–1 Jeonbuk Motors: Result & Stats

Suwon City FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Jeonbuk Motors

3/9/2024

K League 1 · Round 2Suwon Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Suwon City FC30%

×Draw25%

Jeonbuk Motors45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Suwon City FCExpected goals in this matchJeonbuk Motors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.60

Suwon City FC

1.25

Jeonbuk Motors

1.60

Jeonbuk Motors creates 28% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 154 away

1.57

creates per match

1.55

1.66

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Suwon City FC

1.57

Jeonbuk Motors

1.55

allows per match

Suwon City FC

1.66

Jeonbuk Motors

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Suwon City FC+0.00on par

Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suwon City FC ↓

Jeonbuk Motors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Suwon City FC or draw

55%

Suwon City FC or Jeonbuk Motors

75%

Draw or Jeonbuk Motors

70%

Winning margin

Suwon City FC wins by 2+

13%

Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Suwon City FC 1+ goals

71%

Suwon City FC 2+ goals

36%

Suwon City FC 3+ goals

13%

Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals

80%

Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals

47%

Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Suwon City FC (draw refunded)

40%

Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suwon City FC at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.66 · 96 matches

Jeonbuk Motors away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.94 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suwon City FC attack 1.57 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.25

Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.55 + Suwon City FC defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Suwon City FC scores more

30%

level

25%

Jeonbuk Motors scores more

45%

Jeonbuk Motors at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jeonbuk Motors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff