Jeonbuk Motors 2–3 Suwon City FC: Result & Stats

Jeonbuk Motors

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Suwon City FC

5/12/2024

K League 1 · Round 12Jeonju World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Jeonbuk Motors52%

×Draw24%

Suwon City FC24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jeonbuk MotorsExpected goals in this matchSuwon City FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.05

Jeonbuk Motors

1.67

Suwon City FC

1.05

Jeonbuk Motors creates 59% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 97 away

1.70

creates per match

1.13

0.98

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Jeonbuk Motors

1.70

Suwon City FC

1.13

allows per match

Jeonbuk Motors

0.98

Suwon City FC

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par

Suwon City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeonbuk Motors ↓

Suwon City FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Jeonbuk Motors or draw

76%

Jeonbuk Motors or Suwon City FC

76%

Draw or Suwon City FC

48%

Winning margin

Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+

28%

Suwon City FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals

81%

Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals

50%

Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals

23%

Suwon City FC 1+ goals

65%

Suwon City FC 2+ goals

28%

Suwon City FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)

68%

Suwon City FC (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeonbuk Motors at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.98 · 158 matches

Suwon City FC away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.63 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.70 + Suwon City FC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.67

Suwon City FC attack 1.13 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Jeonbuk Motors scores more

52%

level

24%

Suwon City FC scores more

24%

Jeonbuk Motors at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Jeonbuk Motors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff