Suwon City FC 2–4 Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Suwon City FC

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

9/21/2024

K League 1 · Round 31Suwon Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Suwon City FC39%

×Draw25%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Suwon City FCExpected goals in this matchGimcheon Sangmu FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.44

Suwon City FC

1.48

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 96 home / 117 away

1.57

creates per match

1.23

1.66

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Suwon City FC

1.57

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.23

allows per match

Suwon City FC

1.66

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Suwon City FC+0.00on par

Gimcheon Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suwon City FC ↓

Gimcheon Sangmu FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Suwon City FC or draw

63%

Suwon City FC or Gimcheon Sangmu FC

75%

Draw or Gimcheon Sangmu FC

61%

Winning margin

Suwon City FC wins by 2+

18%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Suwon City FC 1+ goals

77%

Suwon City FC 2+ goals

43%

Suwon City FC 3+ goals

19%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1+ goals

76%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2+ goals

42%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Suwon City FC (draw refunded)

51%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suwon City FC at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.66 · 96 matches

Gimcheon Sangmu FC away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.38 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suwon City FC attack 1.57 + Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.48

Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.23 + Suwon City FC defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Suwon City FC scores more

39%

level

25%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC scores more

37%

Suwon City FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Suwon City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff