Suwon Bluewings 2–3 Ulsan Hyundai FC

Suwon Bluewings

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Ulsan Hyundai FC

Lee Ki-Je 62'

An Byong-Jun 9'

M. Ádám 86' (pen)

Kim Young-Gwon 41'

G. Ludwigson 6'

5/21/2023

K League 1 · Round 14Suwon World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Suwon Bluewings33%

×Draw27%

Ulsan Hyundai FC40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Suwon BluewingsExpected goals in this matchUlsan Hyundai FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.33

Suwon Bluewings

1.17

Ulsan Hyundai FC

1.33

Ulsan Hyundai FC creates 14% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 137 away

1.13

creates per match

1.37

1.30

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Suwon Bluewings

1.13

Ulsan Hyundai FC

1.37

allows per match

Suwon Bluewings

1.30

Ulsan Hyundai FC

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Suwon Bluewings+0.00on par

Ulsan Hyundai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suwon Bluewings ↓

Ulsan Hyundai FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Suwon Bluewings or draw

60%

Suwon Bluewings or Ulsan Hyundai FC

73%

Draw or Ulsan Hyundai FC

67%

Winning margin

Suwon Bluewings wins by 2+

13%

Ulsan Hyundai FC wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Suwon Bluewings 1+ goals

69%

Suwon Bluewings 2+ goals

33%

Suwon Bluewings 3+ goals

11%

Ulsan Hyundai FC 1+ goals

74%

Ulsan Hyundai FC 2+ goals

38%

Ulsan Hyundai FC 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Suwon Bluewings (draw refunded)

45%

Ulsan Hyundai FC (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suwon Bluewings at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.30 · 92 matches

Ulsan Hyundai FC away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.20 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suwon Bluewings attack 1.13 + Ulsan Hyundai FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.37 + Suwon Bluewings defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Suwon Bluewings scores more

33%

level

27%

Ulsan Hyundai FC scores more

40%

Ulsan Hyundai FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ulsan Hyundai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

Lee Ki-Je

Suwon Bluewings · M

8.2

Match Events

6'

G. Ludwigson↳ Seol Young-Woo

9'

An Byong-Jun↳ Lee Ki-Je

20'

Jeong Seung-Won← Son Ho-Jun

20'

V. Qazaishvili← Hwang Jae-Hwan

41'

Kim Young-Gwon

46'

Kim Tae-Hwan← Ryu Seung-Woo

46'

Lee Sang-Min← Yeom Ki-Hun

62'

Lee Ki-Je

66'

Yu Je-Ho← Ko Seung-Beom

69'

Kim Min-Hyeok← Lee Gyu-Sung

76'

Um Won-Sang← Lee Chung-Yong

76'

Cho Hyun-Taek← G. Ludwigson

76'

M. Ádám← Joo Min-Kyu

86'

M. ÁdámPenalty

89'

Martin Ádám

90'

Go Myeong-Seok← Lee Sang-Min

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SuwonUlsan

Overview

35%Possession65%

6Total Shots20

0Corners11

7Fouls12

Shots

6Total Shots20

2On Target6

3Off Target11

1Blocked3

2Inside Box16

4Outside Box4

Passing

35%Possession65%

355Total Passes651

263Accurate Passes563

74%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

7Fouls12

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2