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Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Suwon Bluewings
Suwon Bluewings
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Ulsan Hyundai FC
5/16/2018AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · 8th FinalsSuwon World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Suwon Bluewings41%
×Draw24%
Ulsan Hyundai FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suwon Bluewings
1.61
Ulsan Hyundai FC
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 31 away

creates per match

Suwon Bluewings
1.75
Ulsan Hyundai FC
1.48

allows per match

Suwon Bluewings
1.50
Ulsan Hyundai FC
1.48

finishing

Suwon Bluewings+0.00on par
Ulsan Hyundai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suwon Bluewings ↓

Ulsan Hyundai FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Suwon Bluewings or draw
65%
Suwon Bluewings or Ulsan Hyundai FC
76%
Draw or Ulsan Hyundai FC
59%

Winning margin

Suwon Bluewings wins by 2+
20%
Ulsan Hyundai FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Suwon Bluewings 1+ goals
80%
Suwon Bluewings 2+ goals
48%
Suwon Bluewings 3+ goals
22%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 1+ goals
77%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2+ goals
44%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Suwon Bluewings (draw refunded)
53%
Ulsan Hyundai FC (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suwon Bluewings at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Ulsan Hyundai FC away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suwon Bluewings attack 1.75 + Ulsan Hyundai FC defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.61

Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.48 + Suwon Bluewings defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Suwon Bluewings scores more
41%
level
24%
Ulsan Hyundai FC scores more
35%

Suwon Bluewings at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Suwon Bluewings will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC

Suwon Bluewings beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-0 in AFC Champions League on May 16, 2018.

The match was played at Suwon World Cup Stadium in Suwon.