Suwon Bluewings 1–2 Suwon City FC: Result & Stats

Suwon Bluewings

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Suwon City FC

6/3/2023

K League 1 · Round 16Suwon World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Suwon Bluewings40%

×Draw27%

Suwon City FC33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Suwon BluewingsExpected goals in this matchSuwon City FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.21

Suwon Bluewings

1.36

Suwon City FC

1.21

Suwon Bluewings creates 12% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 97 away

1.10

creates per match

1.13

1.30

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Suwon Bluewings

1.10

Suwon City FC

1.13

allows per match

Suwon Bluewings

1.30

Suwon City FC

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Suwon Bluewings+0.00on par

Suwon City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suwon Bluewings ↓

Suwon City FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Suwon Bluewings or draw

67%

Suwon Bluewings or Suwon City FC

73%

Draw or Suwon City FC

60%

Winning margin

Suwon Bluewings wins by 2+

19%

Suwon City FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Suwon Bluewings 1+ goals

74%

Suwon Bluewings 2+ goals

39%

Suwon Bluewings 3+ goals

16%

Suwon City FC 1+ goals

70%

Suwon City FC 2+ goals

34%

Suwon City FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Suwon Bluewings (draw refunded)

55%

Suwon City FC (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suwon Bluewings at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.30 · 110 matches

Suwon City FC away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.63 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suwon Bluewings attack 1.10 + Suwon City FC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.36

Suwon City FC attack 1.13 + Suwon Bluewings defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Suwon Bluewings scores more

40%

level

27%

Suwon City FC scores more

33%

Suwon Bluewings at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Suwon Bluewings will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff