Suwon Bluewings 0–3 Jeonbuk Motors: Result & Stats

Suwon Bluewings

Pens

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Jeonbuk Motors

9/19/2018

AFC Champions League · Quarter-finalsSuwon World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Suwon Bluewings36%

×Draw24%

Jeonbuk Motors40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Suwon BluewingsExpected goals in this matchJeonbuk Motors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.64

Suwon Bluewings

1.54

Jeonbuk Motors

1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 22 away

1.75

creates per match

1.77

1.50

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Suwon Bluewings

1.75

Jeonbuk Motors

1.77

allows per match

Suwon Bluewings

1.50

Jeonbuk Motors

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Suwon Bluewings+0.00on par

Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suwon Bluewings ↓

Jeonbuk Motors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Suwon Bluewings or draw

60%

Suwon Bluewings or Jeonbuk Motors

76%

Draw or Jeonbuk Motors

64%

Winning margin

Suwon Bluewings wins by 2+

17%

Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Suwon Bluewings 1+ goals

79%

Suwon Bluewings 2+ goals

45%

Suwon Bluewings 3+ goals

20%

Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals

81%

Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals

49%

Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Suwon Bluewings (draw refunded)

47%

Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suwon Bluewings at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Jeonbuk Motors away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suwon Bluewings attack 1.75 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.54

Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.77 + Suwon Bluewings defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Suwon Bluewings scores more

36%

level

24%

Jeonbuk Motors scores more

40%

Jeonbuk Motors at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Jeonbuk Motors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff