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Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings — FA Cup 2019

Jeonbuk Motors
Jeonbuk Motorsadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Suwon Bluewings
Suwon Bluewings
6/29/2022FA CupFA Cup · Quarter-finalsJeonju World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Jeonbuk Motors60%
×Draw24%
Suwon Bluewings15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeonbuk Motors
1.64
Suwon Bluewings
0.69

Jeonbuk Motors creates 138% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

Jeonbuk Motors
2.00
Suwon Bluewings
0.82

allows per match

Jeonbuk Motors
0.56
Suwon Bluewings
1.27

finishing

Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par
Suwon Bluewings+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeonbuk Motors ↓

Suwon Bluewings →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Jeonbuk Motors or draw
85%
Jeonbuk Motors or Suwon Bluewings
76%
Draw or Suwon Bluewings
40%

Winning margin

Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+
33%
Suwon Bluewings wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals
81%
Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals
49%
Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals
23%
Suwon Bluewings 1+ goals
50%
Suwon Bluewings 2+ goals
15%
Suwon Bluewings 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)
80%
Suwon Bluewings (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeonbuk Motors at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Suwon Bluewings away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeonbuk Motors attack 2.00 + Suwon Bluewings defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.64

Suwon Bluewings attack 0.82 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Jeonbuk Motors scores more
60%
level
24%
Suwon Bluewings scores more
15%

Jeonbuk Motors at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Jeonbuk Motors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Jeonbuk Motors 3–0 Suwon Bluewings

Jeonbuk Motors beat Suwon Bluewings 3-0 in FA Cup on June 29, 2022.

The match was played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium in Jeonju.