Suwon Bluewings 1–0 Hwaseong: Result & Stats

Suwon Bluewings

AET

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hwaseong

S. Hoon 111', 107', 59'

10/2/2019

FA Cup · Semi-finalsSuwon World Cup Stadium (Suwon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Suwon Bluewings40%

×Draw22%

Hwaseong39%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Suwon BluewingsExpected goals in this matchHwaseong

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.84

Suwon Bluewings

1.87

Hwaseong

1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

2.14

creates per match

3.40

0.29

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Suwon Bluewings

2.14

Hwaseong

3.40

allows per match

Suwon Bluewings

0.29

Hwaseong

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Suwon Bluewings+0.00on par

Hwaseong+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suwon Bluewings ↓

Hwaseong →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Suwon Bluewings or draw

61%

Suwon Bluewings or Hwaseong

78%

Draw or Hwaseong

60%

Winning margin

Suwon Bluewings wins by 2+

21%

Hwaseong wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Suwon Bluewings 1+ goals

85%

Suwon Bluewings 2+ goals

56%

Suwon Bluewings 3+ goals

29%

Hwaseong 1+ goals

84%

Hwaseong 2+ goals

55%

Hwaseong 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Suwon Bluewings (draw refunded)

51%

Hwaseong (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suwon Bluewings at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

Hwaseong away — creates 3.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suwon Bluewings attack 2.14 + Hwaseong defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.87

Hwaseong attack 3.40 + Suwon Bluewings defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Suwon Bluewings scores more

40%

level

22%

Hwaseong scores more

39%

Suwon Bluewings at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Suwon Bluewings will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

Park Seung-Ryul

46'

H. Oh← H. Oh

46'

Kim Dong-Suk← Kim Dong-Suk

57'

Y. Jin Cho

59'

S. Hoon

67'

P. Jun-Tae← P. Jun-Tae

69'

J. Lee← J. Lee

71'

H. Oh

74'

C. In-Seok

76'

S. Yang

80'

A. Taggart

85'

S. Jeon← S. Jeon

88'

J. Lee

99'

Y. Jin Cho

99'

Y. Jin Cho

103'

Lee Jung-Hwan← Lee Jung-Hwan

106'

Ko Seung-Beom← Ko Seung-Beom

107'

S. Hoon

111'

S. Hoon

Suwon

Hwaseong

21

13

5

34

10

8

4

▼

26

22

7

9

19

3

33

39

90

4

26

25

8

18

9

👔

Manager: Lee Lim-Saeng

46'▲—←▼H. Oh

69'▲—←▼J. Lee

85'▲—←▼S. Jeon

106'▲—←▼Ko Seung-Beom

Suwon Bluewings substitutes

37Hyun-Gyu16Jong-Sung14Se-Jin77Seung-Beom15Ja-Ryoung21Hyung-Mo30Se-Gye

👔

Manager: Kim Hak-Chul

46'▲—←▼Kim Dong-Suk

67'▲—←▼P. Jun-Tae

103'▲—←▼Lee Jung-Hwan

Hwaseong substitutes

27Dong-Suk25Joon-Tae11Jun-Yong1Sang-Heon15Young-Je19Bo-Yong14Dae-kyeong