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Suwon Bluewings vs Chuncheon — FA Cup 2019

Suwon Bluewings
Suwon Bluewings
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Chuncheon
Chuncheon
3/24/2024FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundSuwon World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Suwon Bluewings58%
×Draw21%
Chuncheon21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suwon Bluewings
2.07
Chuncheon
1.15

Suwon Bluewings creates 80% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Suwon Bluewings
2.14
Chuncheon
2.00

allows per match

Suwon Bluewings
0.29
Chuncheon
2.00

finishing

Suwon Bluewings+0.00on par
Chuncheon+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suwon Bluewings ↓

Chuncheon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Suwon Bluewings or draw
79%
Suwon Bluewings or Chuncheon
79%
Draw or Chuncheon
42%

Winning margin

Suwon Bluewings wins by 2+
35%
Chuncheon wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Suwon Bluewings 1+ goals
87%
Suwon Bluewings 2+ goals
61%
Suwon Bluewings 3+ goals
34%
Chuncheon 1+ goals
68%
Chuncheon 2+ goals
32%
Chuncheon 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Suwon Bluewings (draw refunded)
74%
Chuncheon (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suwon Bluewings at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

Chuncheon away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suwon Bluewings attack 2.14 + Chuncheon defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.07

Chuncheon attack 2.00 + Suwon Bluewings defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Suwon Bluewings scores more
58%
level
21%
Chuncheon scores more
21%

Suwon Bluewings at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Suwon Bluewings will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Suwon Bluewings vs Chuncheon

Suwon Bluewings beat Chuncheon 2-1 in FA Cup on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Suwon World Cup Stadium in Suwon.