Suwon Bluewings 0–1 Busan I Park: Result & Stats

Suwon Bluewings

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Busan I Park

9/25/2024

K League 2 · Round 32Yongin Mireu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Suwon Bluewings43%

×Draw26%

Busan I Park31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Suwon BluewingsExpected goals in this matchBusan I Park

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.16

Suwon Bluewings

1.41

Busan I Park

1.16

Suwon Bluewings creates 22% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 104 away

1.62

creates per match

1.35

0.96

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Suwon Bluewings

1.62

Busan I Park

1.35

allows per match

Suwon Bluewings

0.96

Busan I Park

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Suwon Bluewings+0.00on par

Busan I Park+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suwon Bluewings ↓

Busan I Park →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Suwon Bluewings or draw

69%

Suwon Bluewings or Busan I Park

74%

Draw or Busan I Park

57%

Winning margin

Suwon Bluewings wins by 2+

20%

Busan I Park wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Suwon Bluewings 1+ goals

76%

Suwon Bluewings 2+ goals

41%

Suwon Bluewings 3+ goals

17%

Busan I Park 1+ goals

69%

Busan I Park 2+ goals

32%

Busan I Park 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Suwon Bluewings (draw refunded)

58%

Busan I Park (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suwon Bluewings at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.96 · 47 matches

Busan I Park away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.20 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suwon Bluewings attack 1.62 + Busan I Park defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.41

Busan I Park attack 1.35 + Suwon Bluewings defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Suwon Bluewings scores more

43%

level

26%

Busan I Park scores more

31%

Suwon Bluewings at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Suwon Bluewings will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff