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Suwon Bluewings vs Asan Mugunghwa — K League 2 2026

Suwon Bluewings
Suwon Bluewings
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Asan Mugunghwa
Asan Mugunghwa
3/3/2024K League 2K League 2 · Round 1Suwon World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Suwon Bluewings47%
×Draw26%
Asan Mugunghwa27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suwon Bluewings
1.46
Asan Mugunghwa
1.04

Suwon Bluewings creates 40% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 149 away

creates per match

Suwon Bluewings
1.65
Asan Mugunghwa
1.11

allows per match

Suwon Bluewings
0.98
Asan Mugunghwa
1.26

finishing

Suwon Bluewings+0.00on par
Asan Mugunghwa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suwon Bluewings ↓

Asan Mugunghwa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Suwon Bluewings or draw
73%
Suwon Bluewings or Asan Mugunghwa
74%
Draw or Asan Mugunghwa
53%

Winning margin

Suwon Bluewings wins by 2+
23%
Asan Mugunghwa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Suwon Bluewings 1+ goals
77%
Suwon Bluewings 2+ goals
43%
Suwon Bluewings 3+ goals
18%
Asan Mugunghwa 1+ goals
65%
Asan Mugunghwa 2+ goals
28%
Asan Mugunghwa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Suwon Bluewings (draw refunded)
63%
Asan Mugunghwa (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suwon Bluewings at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

Asan Mugunghwa away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suwon Bluewings attack 1.65 + Asan Mugunghwa defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.46

Asan Mugunghwa attack 1.11 + Suwon Bluewings defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Suwon Bluewings scores more
47%
level
26%
Asan Mugunghwa scores more
27%

Suwon Bluewings at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Suwon Bluewings will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Suwon Bluewings vs Asan Mugunghwa

Suwon Bluewings beat Asan Mugunghwa 2-1 in K League 2 on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Suwon World Cup Stadium in Suwon.