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Asan Mugunghwa vs Suwon Bluewings — K League 2 2026

Asan Mugunghwa
Asan Mugunghwa
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Suwon Bluewings
Suwon Bluewings
7/5/2025K League 2K League 2 · Round 19Yishunsin Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Asan Mugunghwa35%
×Draw27%
Suwon Bluewings39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asan Mugunghwa
1.25
Suwon Bluewings
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 153 home / 45 away

creates per match

Asan Mugunghwa
1.31
Suwon Bluewings
1.51

allows per match

Asan Mugunghwa
1.15
Suwon Bluewings
1.20

finishing

Asan Mugunghwa+0.00on par
Suwon Bluewings+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asan Mugunghwa ↓

Suwon Bluewings →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Asan Mugunghwa or draw
61%
Asan Mugunghwa or Suwon Bluewings
73%
Draw or Suwon Bluewings
65%

Winning margin

Asan Mugunghwa wins by 2+
15%
Suwon Bluewings wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Asan Mugunghwa 1+ goals
71%
Asan Mugunghwa 2+ goals
36%
Asan Mugunghwa 3+ goals
13%
Suwon Bluewings 1+ goals
74%
Suwon Bluewings 2+ goals
38%
Suwon Bluewings 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Asan Mugunghwa (draw refunded)
47%
Suwon Bluewings (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asan Mugunghwa at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 153 matches

Suwon Bluewings away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asan Mugunghwa attack 1.31 + Suwon Bluewings defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Suwon Bluewings attack 1.51 + Asan Mugunghwa defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Asan Mugunghwa scores more
35%
level
27%
Suwon Bluewings scores more
39%

Suwon Bluewings at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Suwon Bluewings will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 2: Asan Mugunghwa 2–3 Suwon Bluewings

Suwon Bluewings beat Asan Mugunghwa 3-2 in K League 2 on July 5, 2025.

The match was played at Yishunsin Stadium in Asan.